Global Consumer Sentiment higher
14 March 2013 - 4TREND.ch disclosed that Consumer Sentiment on Twitter increases to 3.1% this week. The indicator recorded 107.9 points compared to last week’s 107.9 points. The rate of change was -12.3% the previous week.
With the number Twitter users surpassing the half a billion mark, there are more than 500 million tweets made every day. 4TREND monitors messages on Twitter in several languages to make a data pool with several billion messages available for trend analysis.
The Consumer Sentiment on Twitter is one of four sub-components of the consumer GLOBAL LEADING INDICATOR (GLI) of 4TREND. The GLI also consists of components in trade and traffic, job market, PMI’s stock and commodity market.
Currently, analysis shows that luxury shopping this week has indicated a changed of 0.1% compared to last week’s 0.0%. The sub-index on Travel and Recreation, on the other hand, recorded 109.9 points, with last week’s at 104.6 points. (4TREND.CH)
Fear Index rises slightly to 0.8 percent
14 March 2013 - The Global Fear Index on Twitter increased over the previous week to 0.8%, with last week pegged at 6.2% (weekly rate). Consequently, the fear gauge is listed at 108.7 points compared to January’s record at 100 points.
Concerns about the labor market, particularly unemployment, inflation and deflation, are increasing, while the fear of recession is decreasing. The Fear Index on Twitter reflects the immediate global interests and concerns of Twitter users on the subject exchanges, finance, and economy, while billions of other tweets and retweets are evaluated.
This index designed and provided by 4TREND, therefore, forms a ‘soundboard’. It shows how intensely people actually deal with and how seriously they classify current economic issues. Moreover, the Fear Index also serves as an early warning system and partly as a contrarian indicator.
The Fear Index on Twitter complements the Fear Index on Google, which has also been generated by 4TREND for several years. Historical data shows that content-based analysis is often used to strike the fear gauge alarm and show the turning points at higher level as traditional volatility indices on the financial markets. (4TREND.CH)
Initial Jobless Claims: 2.9% lower
Positive medium-term trend
3.14.2013 The United States Department of Labor recorded initial jobless claims last week at 332'000 , which corresponds to a change of -10000 or -2.9% from the previous week's revised (seasonally adjusted) figure. With average jobless claims forecast pegged at 350'000, the official data turns out better than forecast (-5.1%).
Compared to the previous year’s -8.5% - the change over the last two weeks is -4.3% (seasonally adjusted). Meanwhile, not seasonally adjusted data shows a -6.1% change in the previous week, with annual rate at -7.3% (yoy).
An analysis of current data shows that the short-term trend is favorable: The 4-weeks Moving Average is -0.8% . Also the medium-term trend indicates positive signs for the U.S. labor market: Compared with last week’s, the 26-weeks Moving Average reveals -0.6% - in contrast with the previous week’s -0.3% (4TREND.ch - hanspeter.arnold@4trend.ch).
Initial Jobless Claims: 2.9% lower
Positive medium-term trend
Compared to the previous year’s -8.5% - the change over the last two weeks is -4.3% (seasonally adjusted). Meanwhile, not seasonally adjusted data shows a -6.1% change in the previous week, with annual rate at -7.3% (yoy).
An analysis of current data shows that the short-term trend is favorable: The 4-weeks Moving Average is -0.8% . Also the medium-term trend indicates positive signs for the U.S. labor market: Compared with last week’s, the 26-weeks Moving Average reveals -0.6% - in contrast with the previous week’s -0.3% (4TREND.ch - hanspeter.arnold@4trend.ch).
